Demographic change, education and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries / Abdullah Abdulaziz Abdullah Bawazir

Abdullah Abdulaziz , Abdullah Bawazir (2021) Demographic change, education and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries / Abdullah Abdulaziz Abdullah Bawazir. PhD thesis, Universiti Malaya.

	PDF (The Candidate's Agreement) Restricted to Repository staff only Download (195Kb)
	PDF (Thesis PhD) Download (1789Kb)

Abstract

The demographic change-economic growth relationship has been extensively researched for several decades. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of age structure change. In the Middle Eastern nations, the proportion of working-age population demonstrated a remarkable change in the population structure over several decades with potential implications on the economy. Additionally, the influence of human capital on economic growth proved crucial as it has been seen as the engine of economic growth. This study aimed to investigate the impact of demographic change and education on economic growth in 10 Middle Eastern countries between 1996 and 2018. For this purpose, the study utilized three alternative models of static panel data comprising of the pooled ordinary least squares, random effects, and fixed effects. This study outlined demographic changes more extensively than most works of literature using the internal demographic compositions of the working-age population with age and gender as measures of demographic change. The results revealed that the demographic changes reflected by the internal demographic composition of the working-age population (young, middle-aged, and senior workers) significantly and positively contributed to economic growth. Moreover, two distinct measures for population ageing were employed, namely, population aged 65 and above and the old-age dependency ratio. Resultantly, the aforementioned age range and dependency ratio positively influenced economic growth. As such, the senior population was not a matter of concern for the Middle East. The mechanisms through which the positive effect can take place are savings behaviour and human capital accumulation of the individuals, in which case, the elderly individuals are viewed as a source of skilled talents who are able to work for an extended duration of time. This will enable countries to be recipients of the optimal value of older workers who have the tendency to possess extensive experience and knowledge. The educational level-economic growth relationship was also investigated using gender-disaggregated data, thus highlighting that education positively contributed to Middle Eastern economic growth. Specifically, tertiary education contributed more to economic growth compared to other education levels. This is particularly significant as the importance of tertiary education is undeniable in terms of offering knowledge and generating highly skilled workers. In terms of gender, the results showed that both male and female education had a significant impact on economic growth; however, the female education levels contributed more to economic growth than the male education levels. Furthermore, investigation on the role of education and fertility indicated that these determinants were the most vital drivers of female labour force participation. In this vein, the increase in female education and subsequent decrease in fertility rates potentially resulted to increase female labour participation in the region. Hence, more efforts should be made to encourage women’s active engagement in the labour market for the achievement of economic benefits. Overall, the Middle East region required demographic and economic policies that promote active engagement in the labour market to enhance productivity and achieve a high-income economy. Educational policies were also needed to prioritise human capital development.

Actions (For repository staff only : Login required)