Development of a climate change vulnerability index for Peninsular Malaysia / Wong Foong Mei

Wong, Foong Mei (2014) Development of a climate change vulnerability index for Peninsular Malaysia / Wong Foong Mei. Masters thesis, University of Malaya.

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Abstract

There are two factors that can affect changes in climate; internal variation and external forcing. The warming and cooling trend is determined by increases of the concentration of greenhouse gases, which consists of water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stabilised instantly at today’s level, the climate would still continue to change as it adapts to the increased emission of recent decades. This is because climate change in the future is greatly influence by the past emissions. Therefore, further changes in climate are unavoidable. Since 21st century, the issue of climate change has received much attention throughout the world. According to the Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the increase in surface air temperature is not distributed evenly over the globe. Thus, assessment of the climate change impacts should be carried out at regional scale. This study provides information on vulnerability to climate change and its magnitude in Peninsular Malaysia at the state level. This assessment was performed through a multivariate index which consists of evaluation from exposure/risk component, sensitivity component and coping ability component. This study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related exposure/risk in 11 states and Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur. Based on the climate change vulnerability index, the climatically most vulnerable state has been identified so that relevant adaptation strategies and policies can be taken to mitigate the possible threat related to climate change. The data used in this study was obtained from secondary sources; from the Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) and related government agencies. Based on the assessment, Kelantan is the most vulnerable region in Peninsular Malaysia. Kelantan has been recorded as the most vulnerable in 9 risks/exposures out from 15 risks/exposures, namely geographical elevation, road density, potable water supply, communication network coverage, dependency ratio, health facilities, poverty, Gross Domestic Product and air quality. Kelantan scores 0.7061 out of 1.0, as the most vulnerable state towards the climate change in Peninsular Malaysia. Consequently, with the result from this study, the adaptation policy formulation and planning is able to custom based on the risk specific exposure issues related to climate change at the localized level.

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